2024年人力资源预测：全球追求生产力In this fast-evolving era, all companies and individuals are seeking for change and efficiency. We can see the core of productivity in the new year: AI. Let's have a look at details on the Josh Bersin Predictions for 2024.
在过去的二十年里，我一直在写关于人力资源预测的文章，但今年不同。我看到这一年打破了范式，改变了商业中的每一个角色。不仅人工智能会改变每家公司和每一项工作，而且公司将开始不懈地寻求生产力。
想想我们的过去。2008年金融危机后，世界开始了加速增长的零利率时期。公司增加了收入，雇用了员工，并看着他们的股价上涨。招聘继续以狂热的速度进行，导致2019年底失业率创下3.5%的历史新低。
随之而来的是大流行，在六个月内，一切都停滞不前。2020年4月，失业率飙升至15%，公司将人们送回家，我们重新设计了我们的产品、服务和经济，以应对远程工作、混合工作制和对心理健康的关注。
一旦经济再次启动（由于美国的财政刺激），公司又回到了旧的招聘周期。但随着利率上升和需求不足，我们看到裁员一再发生，在过去的18个月里，我们看到了招聘、裁员，然后再次招聘以复苏经济。
为什么会出现跷跷板效应？
首席执行官和首席财务官正处于我们所说的“工业时代”——招聘以增长经济，然后在事情好转时裁员。
今天，当我们进入2024年时，一切都不同了。我们必须“囤积人才”，投资于生产力，并重新开发和重新部署人员以实现增长。
我们生活在一个失业率为 3.8% 的世界，几乎每个职位都存在劳动力短缺，劳动力权力日益增强，员工需求不断涌现：对加薪、灵活性、自主权和福利的要求。每年有超过20%的美国员工换工作（每月2.3%），其中近一半的变化是进入新行业。
为什么这是“新常态”？
有几个原因。首先，正如我们在全球劳动力情报研究中所讨论的那样，行业是重叠的。每家公司都是数字化公司；每家公司都希望建立经常性收入来源；很快，每家公司都将使用人工智能。过去停留在行业内的职业正在转变为“基于技能的职业”，让人们比以往任何时候都更容易跳槽。
其次，员工（尤其是年轻员工）感到有权按照自己的意愿行事。他们可能会悄悄地辞职，“做兼职”，或者抽出时间转行。他们看到自己的生活很长（人们的寿命比 1970 年代和 1980 年代长得多），所以他们不介意离开你的公司去其他地方。
第三，生育率持续下降，劳动力短缺加剧。日本、中国、德国和英国的劳动力人口都在萎缩。在未来十年左右的时间里，大多数其他发达经济体也将如此。
第四，工会正在崛起。由于华盛顿的新理念，我们看到了谷歌、亚马逊、星巴克、GM、福特、Stellantis、凯撒、迪士尼、Netflix等公司的劳工活动。虽然工会参与率不到美国劳动力的11%，但在欧洲要高得多，而且这一趋势正在上升。
这一切意味着什么？
这有很多影响。
首先，公司将更加专注于建立高保留率的工作模式（有人称之为“劳动力囤积”）。这意味着改善薪酬公平，继续混合工作模式，投资于以人为本的领导力，并为员工提供在公司内部从事新职业的机会。这就是为什么人才市场、基于技能的发展和工作流程中的学习如此重要的原因。
其次，CEO必须了解员工的需求、愿望和要求。正如爱德曼的最新研究表明的那样，职业发展现在位居榜首，同时对授权、影响力和信任的渴望也排在首位。我们称之为“员工激活”的新主题：倾听员工的意见，并将有关他们工作的决定委托给他们的经理、团队和领导者。
第三，传统的“雇佣成长”模式并不总是奏效。在这个后工业时代，我们必须系统地运作，将内部发展、工作再设计、经验和招聘放在一起。这汇集了招聘、奖励和薪酬、学习与发展以及组织设计等独立领域。（阅读我们的系统性人力资源研究了解更多信息。）
“业务绩效”的真正含义是什么？
如果你是首席执行官，你希望增长收入、增加市场份额、提高盈利能力和可持续性。如果你不能通过招聘来成长（而员工不断以奇怪的方式“激活”），你还有什么选择？这很简单：您可以自动化生产并专注于生产力。
虽然这张图表令人印象深刻，但它给每个CEO都引出了一个问题：我们在这张图表上的位置是什么？我们的运营速度是否与同行一样快、一样高效？
我认为这导致了一种我称之为“生产力优势”的策略。如果你能帮助你的公司更快地发展（生产力意味着速度，而不仅仅是利润），你就可以比你的竞争对手更快地进行重塑。这才是真正让CEO们夜不能寐的原因。
考虑一下普华永道最新的CEO调查数据。今年，我们必须比以往任何时候都更快地重塑我们的公司。到2024年，45%的CEO（去年为39%）认为他们的业务在十年内将无法生存。
生产力优势
为什么生产力如此重要？有四个原因。
首先，CEO们关心它。
2024 年普华永道 CEO 调查发现，CEO 认为公司 40%的工作浪费了生产力。
尽管这听起来令人震惊，但对我来说却是真实的：太多的电子邮件、太多的会议、混乱的招聘流程、官僚主义的绩效管理等等。（HR 就有其中一些问题。）
其次，AI让人生产力优势成为可能。
人工智能的应用旨在提高白领的生产力。（过去大多数自动化都有助于蓝领或灰领工人。）生成式 AI 让我们能够更快地查找信息，了解趋势和异常值，训练自己和学习，并清理我们随身携带的文档、工作流程、门户以及后台合规和管理混乱的系统。
第三，公司的发展需要AI。
当很难找招聘到人时，你将如何成长？去年，招聘时间增加了近20%，就业市场变得更加艰难。你能在技术技能上与谷歌或OpenAI竞争吗？
内部开发、重组和自动化项目就是答案。有了生成式人工智能，机会无处不在。
第四，生产力推动重塑。
如果你考虑重塑你公司（新产品、利用人工智能、进入新市场等）的需求，最大的障碍是惯性。为什么诺基亚和黑莓的手机业务输给了苹果？因为这些公司“又胖又快乐”。在这个人才和技能短缺的时代，这是灾难的根源。
普华永道（PwC）估计，“效率低下”产生了对GDP10万亿美元的税收，相当于全球GDP的7%。这种税收阻碍了您的公司转型。每当我们简化、减少会议并更好地定义决策权时，我们都会加快并实现变革。
这一切对人力资源意味着什么？
正如我在《人力资源预测》中所描述的那样，我们有很多问题需要解决。
我们必须加快向动态工作和组织结构的转变。我们必须专注于和务实地对待技能。我们必须重新思考“员工体验”，并处理我们所说的“员工激活”。我们将不得不对我们的人力资源技术、招聘和L&D系统进行现代化改造，以利用人工智能并使这些系统更加有用。
我们的人力资源团队也将由人工智能驱动。正如我们的Galileo™客户告诉我们的那样，一个架构良好的“专家助理”可以彻底改变人力资源人员的工作方式。我们可以成为“全栈”人力资源专业人员，在几秒钟而不是几周内找到有关我们团队的数据，几秒钟与一线领导分享人力资源、领导力和管理实践。（Galileo被一些世界上最大的公司用作管理教练。）
还有一些其他变化。随着公司专注于“通过生产力实现增长”，我们必须考虑每周 4 天的工作制，我们如何将混合工作制度化，以及如何以更有效的方式连接和支持远程工作者。我们必须重新关注领导力发展，在一线经理身上花费更多的时间和金钱，并继续投资于文化和包容性。我们必须简化和重新思考绩效管理，我们必须解决令人头疼的薪酬公平问题。
还有更多。
DEI 计划必须嵌入到业务中（人力资源 DEI 警察的时代已经结束）。我们必须清理我们的员工数据，以便我们的人工智能和人才情报系统准确且值得信赖。正如我们的系统性人力资源研究所指出的那样，我们必须将思维从“支持业务”转变为“成为有价值的顾问”，并将我们的人力资源服务产品化。
所有这些都在我们本周发布的40页新报告“2024 年人力资源预测”中进行了详细说明，其中包括一系列行动计划，以帮助您思考所有这些问题。
让我提醒你一个大观念。生产力是人力资源部门存在的原因。
我们所做的一切，从招聘到辅导，从开发到组织设计，只有在帮助公司成长的情况下才能成功。作为人员流动、敬业度、技能和领导力方面的专家，我们人力资源部门每天都在提高员工和组织的生产力。2024年是专注于这一更高使命的一年。
最后一件事：照顾好自己。
该报告有15个详细的预测，每个预测都有一系列需要考虑的行动步骤。最后一个真正适合你：专注于人力资源的技能和领导力。作为流程的管理者，我们必须专注于我们自己的能力。2024年将是成长、学习和团队合作的一年。如果我们处理好这15个问题，我们将帮助我们的公司在未来一年蓬勃发展。
Josh Bersin预测的详细信息
预测研究是我们每年阅读量最大的报告。它包括我们所有研究的详细摘要，并讨论了首席执行官、首席人力资源官和人力资源专业人士的15个基本问题。它将以以下形式提供：
包含详细信息的信息图。（点击这里)
Source JOSH BERSIN
Galileo
2024年02月01日
Galileo
人工智能正在以比我预期更快的速度改变企业学习AI Is Transforming Corporate Learning Even Faster Than I Expected在《AI正在比我预想的更快地改变企业学习AI Is Transforming Corporate Learning Even Faster Than I Expected》这一文中，Josh Bersin强调了AI对企业学习和发展（L&D）领域的革命性影响。L&D市场价值高达3400亿美元，涵盖了从员工入职到操作程序等一系列活动。传统模型正在随着像Galileo™这样的生成性AI技术的发展而演变，这改变了内容的创建、个性化和传递方式。本文探讨了AI在L&D中的主要用例，包括内容生成、个性化学习体验、技能发展，以及用AI驱动的知识工具替代传统培训。举例包括Arist的AI内容创作、Uplimit的个性化AI辅导，以及沃尔玛实施AI进行即时培训。这种转型是深刻的，呈现了一个AI不仅增强而且重新定义L&D策略的未来。
在受人工智能影响的所有领域中，最大的变革也许发生在企业学习中。经过一年的实验，现在很明显人工智能将彻底改变这个领域。
让我们讨论一下 L&D 到底是什么。企业培训无处不在，这就是为什么它是一个价值 3400 亿美元的市场。工作中发生的一切（从入职到填写费用账户再到复杂的操作程序）在某种程度上都需要培训。即使在经济衰退期间，企业在 L&D 上的支出仍稳定在人均 1200-1500 美元。
然而，正如研发专业人士所知，这个问题非常复杂。有数百种培训平台、工具、内容库和方法。我估计 L&D 技术空间的规模超过 140 亿美元，这甚至不包括搜索引擎、知识管理工具以及 Zoom、Teams 和 Webex 等平台等系统。多年来，我们经历了许多演变：电子学习、混合学习、微型学习，以及现在的工作流程中的学习。
生成式人工智能即将永远改变这一切。
考虑一下我们面临的问题。企业培训并不是真正的教学，而是创造一个学习的环境。传统的教学设计以教师为主导，以过程为中心，但在工作中常常表现不佳。人们通过多种方式学习，通常没有老师，他们寻找参考资料，复制别人正在做的事情，并依靠经理、同事和专家的帮助。因此，必须扩展传统的教学设计模型，以帮助人们学习他们需要的东西。
输入生成人工智能，这是一种旨在合成信息的技术。像Galileo™这样的生成式人工智能工具 可以以传统教学设计师无法做到的方式理解、整合、重组和传递来自大型语料库的信息。这种人工智能驱动的学习方法不仅效率更高，而且效果更好，能够在工作流程中进行学习。
早期，在工作流程中学习意味着搜索信息并希望找到相关的东西。这个过程非常耗时，而且常常没有结果。生成式人工智能通过其神经网络的魔力，现在已经准备好解决这些问题，就像 L&D 的瑞士军刀一样。
这是一个简单的例子。我问Galileo™（该公司经过 25 年的研究和案例研究提供支持）：“我该如何应对总是迟到的员工？请给我一个叙述来帮助我？” 它没有带我去参加管理课程或给我看一堆视频，而是简单地回答了问题。这种类型的互动是企业学习的大部分内容。
让我总结一下人工智能在学习与发展中的四个主要用例：
生成内容：人工智能可以大大减少内容创建所涉及的时间和复杂性。例如，移动学习工具Arist拥有AI生成功能Sidekick，可以将综合的操作信息转化为一系列的教学活动。这个过程可能需要几周甚至几个月的时间，现在可以在几天甚至几小时内完成。
我们在Josh Bersin 学院使用 Arist ，我们的新移动课程现在几乎每月都会推出。Sana、Docebo Shape和以用户为中心的学习平台 360 Learning 等其他工具也同样令人兴奋。
个性化学习者体验：人工智能可以帮助根据个人需求定制学习路径，改进根据工作角色分配学习路径的传统模型。人工智能可以理解内容的细节，并使用该信息来个性化学习体验。这种方法比杂乱的学习体验平台（LXP）有效得多，因为LXP通常无法真正理解内容的细节。
Uplimit是一家致力于构建人工智能平台来帮助教授人工智能的初创公司，它正在使用其Cobot和其他工具为学习人工智能的技术专业人员提供个性化的指导和技巧。Cornerstone 的新 AI 结构按技能推荐课程，Sana 平台将 Galileo 等工具与学习连接起来，SuccessFactors 中的新 AI 功能还为用户提供了基于角色和活动的精选学习视图。
识别和发展技能：人工智能可以帮助识别内容中的技能并推断个人的技能。这有助于提供正确的培训并确定其有效性。虽然许多公司正在研究高级技能分类策略，但真正的价值在于可以通过人工智能识别和开发的细粒度、特定领域的技能。
人才情报领域的先驱者Eightfold、Gloat和SeekOut可以推断员工技能并立即推荐学习解决方案。实际上，我们正在使用这项技术来推出我们的人力资源职业导航器，该导航器将于明年初推出。
用知识工具取代培训：人工智能在学习与发展中最具颠覆性的用例也许是完全取代某些类型培训的潜力。人工智能可以创建提供信息和解决问题的智能代理或聊天机器人，从而可能消除对某些类型培训的需求。这种方法不仅效率更高，而且效果更好，因为它可以在个人需要时为他们提供所需的信息。
沃尔玛今天正在实施这一举措，我们的新平台 Galileo 正在帮助万事达卡和劳斯莱斯等公司在无需培训的情况下按需查找人力资源信息和政策信息。LinkedIn Learning 正在向 Gen AI 搜索开放其软技能内容，很快 Microsoft Copilot 将通过 Viva Learning 找到培训。
这里潜力巨大
在我作为分析师的这些年里，我从未见过一种技术具有如此大的潜力。人工智能将彻底改变 L&D 格局，重塑我们的工作方式，以便 L&D 专业人员可以花时间为企业提供咨询。
L&D 专业人员应该做什么？花一些时间来了解这项技术，或者参加Josh Bersin 学院的一些新的人工智能课程以了解更多信息。
随着我们继续推出像伽利略这样的工具，我知道你们每个人都会对未来的机会感到惊讶。L&D 的未来已经到来，而这一切都由人工智能驱动。
Galileo
2023年12月13日
Galileo
Josh Bersin：Introducing Galileo™, The World’s First AI-Powered Expert Assistant For HRAs many of you know, HR professionals play a vital, complex, and constantly changing role in business. These 30 million professionals hold more than 250 job roles and leverage over 400 skills to help companies with all aspects of management: recruiting, development, leadership, coaching, diversity, pay, benefits, hybrid work, and more. And they must also select and implement a wide array of technologies and tools to help their companies grow.
The Josh Bersin Company, through 25 years of research and interviews with thousands of companies and vendors, has amassed the most trusted library of best-practices, vendor information, benchmarks, case studies, and professional development tools for HR.
Last Spring we embarked on a project to build an “HR Copilot”, consolidating our content into a Generative AI platform. The results were amazing: using Gen AI we were able to build an amazing new experience: users can ask questions, compare vendors, dig into solutions, and generate implementation plans, RFP templates, and more.
Today, in our ongoing effort to help HR professionals drive value for their companies, we’re ready to launch this offering. I’m excited to introduce Galileo™, the world’s first AI-powered expert assistant for HR. (Join the waitlist.)
Every HR Question Answered
Just as Galileo mapped the heavens to explain the universe, our Galileo™ gives HR teams the ability to understand, learn, and seek out best-practices in every area of HR. Powered by Sana’s AI platform, Galileo™ gives users complete access to all of The Josh Bersin Company’s comprehensive research, articles, and tools. And unlike internet-based AI tools, Galileo is free of promotional material, giving you trusted, detailed, verifiable accurate information.
We designed Galileo™ to be the HR professional’s ‘always-on’ resource to learn, ask questions, and develop solutions.
Galileo™ can answer questions on hundreds of topics, provide detailed information on vendors and HR technology, draft RFPs and implementation plans, and give users guidance, case studies, and benchmarks. All of the Josh Bersin Company research is instantly available, with access to in-depth reports, podcasts, articles, and courses. This includes access to our maturity models, frameworks, case studies, and our new definition of terms, The Josh Bersin Company Lexicon™.
Galileo™ will revolutionize the way HR Professionals do their jobs. No longer will you have to guess how to develop a new program or understand a vendor – accurate information is available at your fingertips.
Galileo Is A Learning, Design, And Problem Solving Assistant
Many HR problems are complex. To make problem-solving easy, Galileo includes a library of more than 50 pre-defined “prompts” which help professionals with topics like hiring, onboarding, performance management, training, and multi-disciplinary topics like building a skills taxonomy, implementing pay equity, workforce planning, or designing a capability academy.
We designed these prompts in chains, so as you ask a question, Galileo will take you down a path to learn, explore, and further assist you in your query. (The Galileo Getting Started Guide shows you some of the solutions available.)
Enterprise Ready: Galileo Is Your Company’s Expert Assistant
And there’s more. As you use Galileo, you will want to put your own HR policies and internal information into the system. Thanks to the architecture of Sana, Galileo lets users and teams add your information to the corpus, turning Galileo into your company’s in-house HR and employee assistant. In this private workspace your data and privacy are protected: Galileo is an enterprise grade, secure platform that isolates your data from others, pre-trained by The Josh Bersin Company research.
And our partnership with Sana goes further. Not only does the Sana platform provide scale and speed, it lets us build multiple AI assistants. If you want an expert assistant tailored to specific HR disciplines, like Talent Acquisition, L&D, DEI, or line managers, we can create them without writing code.
“This is just the beginning,” said Josh Bersin, CEO and Founder of The Josh Bersin Company. “This paradigm-shattering offering will change the way companies run their HR organizations and manage their people, enabling any professional to operate like a world-class expert in a short period of time. Galileo is a supportive, developmental assistant, ready to give users detailed answers, real-world examples, and guidance at any time.”
Initially Galileo will be available to our corporate members and later next year we will roll out a version available to members of The Josh Bersin Academy.
We want to thank Sana for their partnership and look forward to evolving Galileo rapidly in the coming months. Anyone interested in experiencing Galileo can sign up for the wait list. We expect general availability in early 2024.
Questions:
What Topics Are Covered by Galileo?
Galileo stores more than 50,000 pages of Josh Bersin Company research, including podcasts, articles, and comprehensive data and analysis on a wide variety of topics. These include talent acquisition, talent management, corporate training, diversity and inclusion, organization design, rewards and recognition, pay and pay equity, performance management, leadership development, global HR operations, hybrid work, culture, change management, and every major area of HR technology.
More than 500 vendors are covered by Galileo and the database is growing and updated every week. Over time Galileo will also include real-time information on new vendor offerings, the labor market, skills and capabilities, and important regulatory changes in HR.
To get just a glimpse of what Galileo can do, review the “Galileo Getting Started Guide.”
Is Galileo Generative AI?
Yes, Galileo is an advanced Generative AI solution that lets users ask questions and prompt the system to compare vendors, list best practices, and even create implementation plans, historical perspectives, and in-depth analysis. This means an HR professional can ask any simple question and Galileo will not only answer the question but give the user follow-on prompts to help them learn more, find examples, or download detailed reports, articles, podcasts, or tools.
What Is The Research and Information Provided?
Over the last three decades The Josh Bersin Company has studied nearly every domain of HR, developing in-depth maturity models, frameworks, benchmarks, and case studies. We have also added all of Josh’s blogs, podcasts, and videos – and we will be adding much more. While Galileo does not include legal and regulatory guidelines (these can be discovered in local jurisdictional systems), it covers every major domain of HR, empowering any HR leader or professional to quickly learn, find examples, and solve a problem.
How Do We Know Galileo Information Is Accurate?
Unlike public domain tools, Galileo is trained exclusively on The Josh Bersin Company’s large corpus of information and research. This means it does not suffer from the “AI drift” problem experienced by internet-sourced systems. In fact the opposite is true: as users query and use the system, it enables them to rate the generated answers and get smarter over time.
How Do I Know That Galileo Is Secure?
Galileo does not train any underlying language models on user input, thereby eliminating the risk of data leakage. Sana, which powers Galileo, is single tenant, ISO 27001 certified, and GDPR compliant. All data is encrypted at rest with AES 256 and in transit with TLS 1.2+. The platform follows data privacy regulations and guidelines to protect each individual user.
Can I Use Galileo To Create My Own HR Assistant?
Yes, Galileo is built on the highly configurable Sana platform, enabling users and teams to add their own content and create new AI assistants. We will offer these private workspace features to corporate clients and then roll them out to individual JBA members later in 2024.
How does Galileo Differ From Other AI Tools?
Many companies are experimenting with Generative AI through public internet tools. Galileo differs from these existing AI tools for the following reasons:
Enterprise Scale, Scope, and Security. Galileo is built on an enterprise scale AI platform capable of loading massive volumes of your own company information. This means you can build on the Josh Bersin Company corpus to safely add your own processes, training, compliance documents, and support material for HR professionals and other users throughout your company.
Depth of expertise. The answers and support you receive from Galileo are based on an extensive library from The Josh Bersin Company, one of the world’s leading advisory companies for corporate learning, talent management, and HR. The Josh Bersin Company has customized Galileo to answer and behave as if it were an expert consultant from their organization.
Source attribution. While other AI chat tools don’t consistently back up their answers, Galileo attributes sources to each answer with specific references and further learning content from The Josh Bersin Company library. And for corporate members, you can download and read the detailed sources.
Privacy. While other assistants may get trained on your data and usage, risking data leakage, Galileo lets you upload your own content without training any underlying large language models on your data.
Workflow support. Beyond answering questions and brainstorming ideas, Galileo helps you solve day-to-day tasks like drafting implementation plans because it can generate content based on both expert HR resources and your organization’s information.
How Does Galileo Get Smarter Over Time?
As we say, Galileo is smart and always getting smarter. It does this through many features.
First, Galileo integrates, tags, transcribes, and indexes all of The Josh Bersin Company’s content on an ongoing basis, making sure the system is always trained on the latest research, findings, and vendor information. Every day we add new information.
Second, answers to questions are generated with retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), identifying the semantically relevant videos, audio, and texts, ranking the sources, and attributing the generated answers to the underlying references. We monitor questions and continuously improve results to provide detail and actionable answers.
Third, we take advantage of user-generated feedback. When users upvote or downvote answers the system learns to provide more accurate answers. The Bersin team works with Sana to improve the detailed answers in commonly asked questions. During the 9-month pilot we already optimized hundreds of questions.
Finally, we have developed “prompt chains” of more than 100 known use-cases in HR and management. Galileo literally prompts you to dive into a problem to learn more, explore vendors, read case studies, and learn best-practices. We will accelerate these solutions over time.
The Josh Bersin Company uses Sana AI’s assistant builder to tailor Galileo’s instructions, specifically adapted to various HR roles and tuned with hundreds of archetypical HR scenarios.
Who Is Sana and What is Sana AI?
Sana is an AI company transforming how organizations learn and access knowledge. Their end-to-end learning platform is trusted by hundreds and thousands of users at leading enterprises like Kry/Livi, Merck, and Svea Solar. Backed by top-tier investors, operators, and founders, they have raised over $80m to date. The company’s headquarters are in Stockholm, Sweden, with offices in London and New York. Galileo is powered by Sana AI, the company’s newest product.
To learn more about Sana, go to https://www.sanalabs.com/galileo.
How Is Galileo Sold and Offered?
Initially Galileo is being offered to Josh Bersin Company Corporate Members, enabling these organizations to empower and support their HR teams in an exciting new way. These individuals can access all the information, download all materials, take courses, and share the tools and information with their teams.
In the coming months there will be a version of Galileo for members of The Josh Bersin Academy. We encourage anyone interested to register on our waitlist so that we can provide updates on availability.
How Do I Get Access To Galileo Now?
Please join our wait list, we are now rolling out Galileo to corporate members and look forward to supporting you.
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